Regardless of whether the Coalition or Labor wins next month's election, the income from Australia's mining resources is a key to the next government's finances.
Miners and mining contractors have laid off thousands of workers around the country as the mining investment boom eases back.
Australian Bureau of Statistics data will reveal investment plans in the mining sector. The figures are expected to be weaker than in the past. Nonetheless, there is still bullish sentiment within the industry, especially over iron ore and China's demand for steel.
Australia's once in a century mining boom may have come down to earth, but Australia is still earning more than AUD 50 billion a year from iron ore exports.
Mr Morgan Ball from the Pilbara iron ore miner BC Iron believes profits in the sector have not yet peaked. We're seeing an iron ore price today of USD 140 a tonne, against an Aussie dollar worth 90 US cents. So that creates a Australian dollar revenue number in the order of AUD 155, AUD 160 per tonne. If they were constant for the rest of this financial year, they'd be record profits for us.
Mr Tom Price UBS commodity analyst predicts iron ore prices will fall to as low as USD 70 per tonne later this year, before rebounding. The reason why we said AUD 70 is because of that extra factor of new supply coming into the market. But it's a short-term correction event. We don't think it's actually going to stay at AUD 70 or below AUD 100 for a sustained period. We actually also forecast a recovery in those prices pre winter restocking.
Mr Price thinks China's demand for commodities like iron ore and coal will stay high but prices could fall further as more suppliers come into the market. The price signal boom might be over but the trade flows which have expanded enormously over the last decade thanks to China, I think they're going to stay roughly where they are at the moment for the next 5 to 10 years.
Fluctuating prices of commodities like coal and gold has seen some mines mothballed in the past year.The key issue for Australia's miners is cutting costs, especially when they are competing with firms with lower overheads in other parts of the world.
Ms Anna Littleboy research director for CSIRO's Mineral Futures said that Australia needs a national minerals strategy, focusing on technology. There is always going to be a demand for minerals and metals and that demand is only going to increase, given what's happening with our population and the sort of development and diversification of countries such as China."
She said that "So I think sometimes when we say the mining boom is over we give an impression that everything's going to stop tomorrow, which I don't think is right. We will always have a mining industry in Australia and it'll always be a really important part of our economy. What we need to think about is how we manage that to deliver the best, the most national benefit possible back to Australia and Australians."
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